With the recent introduction of Google Spreadsheets (see Fred Wilson's post) and the pending introduction of Vista, I wish to prodict a sea change, a seismic shift, a global change in the economy. First, I have resisted the notion of on-line applications for wordprocessing and spreadsheets for years, since the idea was first conceived. For one, I continue to be concerned about features and speed of operation. That said, it is now happening. Google is operating both an on-line wordprocessing application and a spreadsheet program that have some big file-sharing and collaboration advantages over desktop applications.
E-mail really created a world in which spreadsheet data was shared electronically instead of via the printed page. This effectively forced everyone to use the same software. Today, everyone I know runs Microsoft Excel. Before e-mail, I remember using Lotus 1-2-3 (which I would still use today, but for the compatability issues).
If Google's wordprocessing and spreadsheet applications start to get real traction, because of their cost or other preceived benefits, file sharing will drive rapid adoption quickly through business networks. I feel like the switch from one program to another will take three years, if it happens. It could happen faster. In the Microsoft camp, Microsoft is betting the farm on a new operating system. It has done this now for 20 years through a variety of operating systems from DOS to Windows XP.
Once or twice competitors made a run at offering competing operating systems, but no one has been successful at knocking Microsoft out of its position.
So, each time Microsoft offers a new operating system, we all run out and buy new computers to run the new operating system and new application software to run on the new operating system.
What if our application software is largely web-based? We don't need to buy the new application software to run on the new operating system. We don't need to buy a new computer to run the new operating system. And we don't need to buy the new operating system.
Of course, not everyone will follow this logic. In fact, I doubt most people will. But some will. Enough will. Enough people will choose not to upgrade to Vista right away to create a solid base of people who migrate to Google's on-line applications specifically instead of upgrading to Vista to change the economics for Google and Microsoft. Permanently.
This change, if it happens, will change fortunes for entrepreneurs around the world as those who are building businesses around the web, especially Google, will tend to prosper more and those who are building businesses around Microsoft will prosper less.
What do you think?
I have written a bit about this (in spanish)
try here if you r interested (i can help in translation if needed).
http://almadormida.blogspot.com/2006/06/google-spreadsheets-hojas-de-clculo-al.html
http://almadormida.blogspot.com/2006/03/writely-y-google-ms-office-tiembla.html
http://almadormida.blogspot.com/2005/12/la-muerte-aparente-de-ms-office.html
Posted by: bonhamled | June 10, 2006 10:43 PM | Permalink to Comment